考虑检修计划的减供负荷功率概率计算方法

doi:10.11985/2016.05.004

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本文剖析电力设备计划检修的概率特征规律,揭示设备计划检修对电网运行的影响,提出不同电压等级变电站设备计划检修时电网过负荷率以及由此所产生的减供负荷功率的概率计算方法。通过对2015~2018年500kV主变压器最少计划检修次数及2015年度计划检修的概率分析,确定2015年度东莞电网500kV变电站因变压器计划检修造成的变压器过负荷概率以及负荷减供功率的平均值。通过220kV变电站负载率的概率分析,确定220kV板桥变电站变压器N-1状态运行的期望时间和概率,和在重载和中载条件下220kV变电站变压器N-1运行时减供负荷功率的平均值及其概率。以某大型电网设备计划检修为例,在概率分析和风险估计基础上计算并分析确定了因设备计划检修所导致的减供负荷功率的平均值。

关键词: 减供负荷功率, 计划检修, 过负荷, 概率计算方法

Abstract:

Based on probability characteristics analysis of electric power equipment maintenance planning, the influence of maintenance planning of different equipment on the operation of the power networks is revealed, and a probability calculation method for overload rate and the reduced supplying load power due to maintenance planning in different voltage-level substations is presented in this paper. Using probability analysis of minimum planning maintenance number of 500kV main transformer from 2015 to 2018 and annual planning repair probability in 2015,the overload probability of main transformer and the expected value of reduced supplying load power of transformers due to transformer planning maintenance in 500kV substations of Dongguan power grid in 2015 is respectively determined. Using probability analysis of load rate of Dongguan 220kV substation considering maintenance planning of transformers and the expected time and the probability of N-1 state operation of transformers in 220kV Banqiao substation in a certain operation period,the expected value and the probability of maximal reduced load power of transformers due to N-1 operation of 220kV transformers in substation with heavy and base load are determined. Taking equipment maintenance planning of a large power grid as a study example, the expected value of the reduced supplying load power caused by equipment maintenance planning is calculated and analyzed based on the probability analysis and risk estimation.

Key words: Reduced supplying load power, maintenance planning, overload, probability calculation method

中图分类号:

TM715

黄强,吴杰康,郑风雷,林奕鑫. 考虑检修计划的减供负荷功率概率计算方法[J]. 电气工程学报, 2016, 11(5): 30-39.

Huang Qiang,Wu Jiekang,Zheng Fenglei,Lin Yixin. A Probability Calculation Method for Reduced Supplying Load Power Considering Maintenance Planning[J]. Journal of Electrical Engineering, 2016, 11(5): 30-39.

图/表 10

图1

图2

表1

表2

表3

表4

计及变压器计划检修的东莞各220kV变电站负载率"

220kV变电站	变压器计划检修情况	变电站剩余额定容量/MW	变电站负载率(%)
220kV变电站	变压器计划检修情况	变电站剩余额定容量/MW	重载(7月份)	中载(10月份)	轻载(2月份)
板桥变电站（T₁,T₃）	任意一台变压器检修	240	129.30	112.42	81.55
板桥变电站（T₂,T₄）	任意一台变压器检修	240	139.72	121.59	88.20
大朗变电站	T₁计划检修	780	92.40	80.47	58.37
大朗变电站	T₂、T₃或T₄计划检修	720	100.10	87.17	63.23
万江变电站	T₁计划检修	540	127.91	111.30	80.73
万江变电站	T₂、T₃或T₄计划检修	510	135.43	117.84	85.48
北栅变电站	任意一台变压器检修	510	113.84	99.00	71.81
莆心变电站	任意一台变压器检修	540	113.08	98.43	71.40
					（续）
220kV变电站	变压器计划检修情况	变电站剩余额定容量/MW	变电站负载率(%)
220kV变电站	变压器计划检修情况	变电站剩余额定容量/MW	重载(7月份)	中载(10月份)	轻载(2月份)
立新变电站	任意一台变压器检修	960	45.88	39.93	28.96
跃立变电站	任意一台变压器检修	720	76.47	66.58	48.30
古坑变电站	任意一台变压器检修	540	79.71	69.26	50.24
陈屋变电站	任意一台变压器检修	720	81.33	70.77	51.33
葵湖变电站	任意一台变压器检修	720	59.78	51.95	37.68
景湖变电站	任意一台变压器检修	720	95.93	83.47	60.55
下沙变电站	任意一台变压器检修	720	69.51	60.47	43.87
信垅变电站	任意一台变压器检修	960	49.01	42.70	30.98
白玉变电站	任意一台变压器检修	960	58.39	50.78	36.84
进埔变电站	任意一台变压器检修	720	83.42	72.54	52.62
寒溪变电站	任意一台变压器检修	720	66.73	58.06	42.12
步田变电站	任意一台变压器检修	480	62.56	54.52	39.55
黎贝变电站	任意一台变压器检修	720	47.27	41.17	29.87
则徐变电站	任意一台变压器检修	960	42.23	36.79	26.69
裕元变电站	任意一台变压器检修	720	47.27	41.17	29.87
七星变电站	任意一台变压器检修	720	48.66	42.30	30.68
彭洞变电站	任意一台变压器检修	720	38.93	33.94	24.62
培厚变电站	任意一台变压器检修	720	52.83	46.00	33.37
和美变电站	任意一台变压器检修	720	41.71	36.35	26.37
角布变电站	任意一台变压器检修	720	47.27	41.17	29.87
元江变电站	任意一台变压器检修	540	105.66	92.00	66.73
长安变电站	任意一台变压器检修	540	131.61	114.51	83.07

表4

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表6

表7

表8

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变电站	主变压器编号	最少计划检修次数（小修）	计划检修概率
东莞500kV 变电站	#1	2	0.50
	#2	2	0.50
	#3	2	0.50
	#4	2	0.50
横沥500kV 变电站	#1	1	0.25
	#2	2	0.50
	#3	1	0.25
	#4	2	0.50
莞城500kV 变电站	#1	1	0.25
	#2	1	0.25
	#3	1	0.25
	#4	3	0.75
水乡500kV 变电站	#2	1	0.25
	#3	1	0.25
	#4	3	0.75
纵江500kV 变电站	#3	3	0.75
	#4	3	0.75
	#5	3	0.75

500kV变电站		东莞站	横沥站	莞城站	水乡站	纵江站
任意一台变压器退出后	额定容量/MW	2 250	3 000	3 000	3 000	2 000
任意一台变压器退出后	正常运行时最大容量/MW	1 800	2 400	2 400	2 400	1 600
重载	负荷/MW	2 058.04	2 772.66	3 799.54	2 135.32	2 534.45
	变压器过负荷概率(%)	93.7	71.9	89.5	0	98.4
	变压器平均负载率(%)	91.5	92.4	126.7	71.2	126.7
中载	负荷/MW	1 791.89	2 414.08	3 308.17	1 859.17	2 206.68
	变压器过负荷概率(%)	0	71.9	89.5	0	98.4
	变压器平均负载率(%)	79.6	80.5	110.3	61.0	110.3
轻载	负荷/MW	1 299.82	1 751.15	2 399.71	1 348.62	1 600.70
	变压器过负荷概率(%)	0	0	0	0	0
	变压器平均负载率(%)	57.8	58.4	80.0	45.0	80.0

500kV变电站		东莞站	横沥站	莞城站	水乡站	纵江站	全市	检修期间累计
重载	负荷/MW	2 058.04	2 772.66	3 799.54	2 534.45	2 135.32	13 300	34 580
重载	减供负荷功率平均值/MW	0	0	799.54	0	534.45	1 333.99	3 468.374
中载	负荷/MW	1 791.89	2 414.08	3 308.17	2 206.68	1 859.17	11 580	30 108
中载	减供负荷功率平均值/MW	0	0	308.17	0	206.68	514.85	1 338.61
轻载	负荷/MW	1 299.82	1 751.15	2 399.71	1 600.70	1 348.62	8 400	21 840
轻载	减供负荷功率平均值/MW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

220kV变电站	变压器计划检修情况	N-1运行时最大减供负荷功率的平均值及概率
板桥变电站（T₁,T₃）	任意一台变压器检修	减供负荷/MW	421.86	773.41	1 124.96	–
板桥变电站（T₁,T₃）	任意一台变压器检修	对应概率(%)	97.68	2.30	0.02	–
北栅变电站	任意一台变压器检修	减供负荷/MW	846.96	1 199.86	1 552.76	–
北栅变电站	任意一台变压器检修	对应概率(%)	96.76	3.20	0.04	–
莆心变电站	任意一台变压器检修	减供负荷/MW	847.32	1 200.37	1 553.42	–
莆心变电站	任意一台变压器检修	对应概率(%)	95.41	4.51	0.08	–
元江变电站	任意一台变压器检修	减供负荷/MW	366.84	516.69	672.54	–
元江变电站	任意一台变压器检修	对应概率(%)	92.65	7.17	0.18	–
长安变电站	任意一台变压器检修	减供负荷/MW	2 048.52	2 902.07	3 755.62	4 609.17
长安变电站	任意一台变压器检修	对应概率(%)	83.83	15.53	0.63	0.01

220kV变电站	变压器计划检修情况	N-1状态运行时最大减供负荷期望及概率
板桥变电站（T₁,T₃）	任意一台变压器检修	减供负荷/MW	178.86	327.91	476.96	–
板桥变电站（T₁,T₃）	任意一台变压器检修	对应概率(%)	97.68	2.30	0.02	–
长安变电站	任意一台变压器检修	减供负荷/MW	940.44	1 332.29	1 724.14	2 115.99
长安变电站	任意一台变压器检修	对应概率(%)	83.83	15.53	0.63	0.01