间歇性能源优先调度评价模型研究

doi:10.11985/2017.12.007

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

针对目前出现的新能源消纳问题,本文以风电为代表,从预测–调度联合运行角度出发,由风电参与短期调度的流程,锁定消纳风电的瓶颈,通过建立风电并网调度顺序评价模型,辅以矩估计优化算法分配权重,实现对各电站并网性能排忧,并以此为基础合理分配各新能源电站的限电容量份额。在促进电网安全稳定运行的同时,保证了对新能源电站的公平调度,对于提升间歇性能源电站运行技术水平有着积极的引导作用。

关键词: 可再生间歇性能源, 调度次序, 并网性能, 矩估计权重, 评价体系

Abstract:

With the rapid development of wind power, photovoltaic and other intermittent energy, new energy consumption is more and more difficult. In the paper, the wind power is taken as the representative to lock the bottleneck of wind power consumption in the short-term scheduling process from the perspective of forecast-scheduling joint operation. The wind power grid scheduling evaluation model is established, and the moment estimation optimization algorithm is used to allocation weights, and make the reasonable distribution of the new energy power plants’ limited capacity share. This method promotes the safe and stable operation of the network, while ensuring the fair scheduling of new energy power plants. It is a positive guidance to improve the operation technology of intermittent power station.

Key words: Intermittent energy, scheduling sequential, grid-connected performance, weighted moment estimation, evaluation

中图分类号:

TM734

徐斌,金龙云,张继权,岳菁鹏. 间歇性能源优先调度评价模型研究[J]. 电气工程学报, 2017, 12(12): 45-51.

Xu Bin,Jin Longyun,Zhang Jiquan,Yue Jingpeng. Study of Priority Scheduling Evaluation Model for Intermittent Energy[J]. Journal of Electrical Engineering, 2017, 12(12): 45-51.

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间歇性能源电站	A	B	C	D	F
预测准确率(%)	96	93	91	89	92
预测合格率(%)	83	91	94	96	95
预测上报率(%)	99	98	99	99	97
昨日限电量/MW	36	28	19	56	34
月累计限电量/MW	259	121	142	80	241
计划完成率(%)	89	92	94	88	86
有功控制能力	1	0	1	1	1
无功控制能力	0	1	0	1	0
低电压穿越能力	1	0	1	0	1

评价指标	权重
预测准确率(%)	27.03
预测合格率(%)	9.38
预测上报率(%)	8.52
昨日限电量(%)	9.33
月累计限电量(%)	8.78
计划完成率(%)	8.54
有功控制能力(%)	8.46
无功控制能力(%)	11.43
低电压穿越能力(%)	8.48

间歇性能源电站	装机容量 /MW	并网性能考核得分	限电基准容量/MW	限电分配结果/MW	占限电基准容量比例(%)	占装机容量比例(%)
A	200	92.81	181.12	15.33	8.46	7.67
B	300	74.55	338.22	28.63	8.46	9.54
C	260	81.06	269.58	22.82	8.46	8.78
D	200	81.16	207.12	17.53	8.46	8.77
F	200	90.66	185.41	15.69	8.46	7.85