关键词: 状态量, 基准态, 预测, 可靠性

Abstract:

In this paper, a complete set of theoretical method is proposed for the reliability analysis of high voltage circuit breakers based on the concept of benchmark. First of all, the key state variables in the process of establishing the benchmark are used to analysis its quality performance. And the performance of the three dimensions is introduced to evaluation of the performance of the device to get the benchmark value of the device, which is the strength of the power grid strength, the equipment strength and the equipment aging degree. Then, the benchmark prediction process is extended as a benchmark analysis, to obtain the forecast model from the classical statistical theory, and to provide a reference for the development trend of the equipment. Finally, the reliability analysis is the ultimate goal and the end result of the benchmark analysis. Using the classical reliability theory to construct the reliability model, the reliability curve of the equipment is drawn. From the curve can be convenient to obtain the current and future reliability of the equipment, and can provide decision support for the operation and maintenance work of the user.

Key words: State variables, benchmark, forecast, reliability