双碳背景下综合能源电力系统弹性分析与提升研究综述*

doi:10.11985/2023.02.011

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为实现“双碳”战略目标，新能源、天然气等清洁低排放的发电方式备受关注并得到了大力发展，清洁高效的综合能源电力系统正蓬勃兴起。与此同时，新能源出力的随机性和多能源系统组成的复杂性日益突出，也加大了综合能源电力系统安全稳定运行的难度，尤其是给系统针对极端事件的弹性分析与提升带来了新的挑战。为此，围绕综合能源电力系统弹性分析与提升，本文从模型构建、分析评估和提升方式的角度开展了相关介绍与梳理。首先简述了综合能源电力系统的组成结构和建模构建方法；其次阐述了综合能源电力系统弹性的相关概念以及分析方法，其中包含了极端事件造成的风险传播过程分析和弹性评估体系架构等；然后按照极端事件的发展阶段梳理总结了综合能源电力系统弹性的提升方法，包括预防性策略、响应性策略和恢复性策略；最后，结合文献调研结果，对“双碳”背景下综合能源电力系统弹性相关问题进行展望。

关键词: 综合能源电力系统, 弹性, “双碳”目标, 极端事件

Abstract:

To achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, clean and low-emission generation techniques, such as renewable energy and natural gas, have acquired considerable attention and have been widely developed. Clean and efficient integrated energy power systems are flourishing. At the same time, the randomness of renewable energy and the complexity of multi-energy composition is becoming increasingly prominent, which makes safe and stable system operation more difficult and especially imposes new challenges into the resilience analysis and enhancement of the system during extreme events. The resilience analysis and enhancement of integrated energy power systems from the perspectives of model construction, analysis and evaluation, and enhancement methods are introduced. Firstly, the composition structure of integrated energy power systems and corresponding modeling methods are presented. In addition, the resilience concept of integrated energy power systems is introduced, including the extreme-event-triggered cascading risks and resilience evaluation methods. Furthermore, according to the development stages of extreme events, the resilience enhancement of integrated energy power systems is summarized, including the preventive, the adaptive, and the recovery. Finally, according to the literature research, prospects of integrated energy power systems resilience under dual carbon goals are made to outline future research.

Key words: Integrated energy power systems, resilience, dual carbon goal, extreme events

中图分类号:

TM561

刘瀚琛, 王冲, 鞠平. 双碳背景下综合能源电力系统弹性分析与提升研究综述^*[J]. 电气工程学报, 2023, 18(2): 108-124.

LIU Hanchen, WANG Chong, JU Ping. Review on Resilience Analysis and Enhancement of Integrated Energy Power Systems Considering Dual Carbon Goal[J]. Journal of Electrical Engineering, 2023, 18(2): 108-124.

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层面	建模分析方法	方法特点
能量交互层	管道稳态模型^{[38⇓⇓-41]}	仅包含节点气压和支路流量的代数关系，仅适用于稳态分析
	动态管存模型^[42⇓-44]	考虑气网等系统的管存效应，可反映一定程度的动态特性
	离散差分模型^{[45⇓⇓-48]}	可考虑不同能源系统的动态特性，计算量大；可用于动态分析
	统一能路模型^{[49⇓⇓⇓-53]}	由“场”到“路”，推导出不同能源系统的阻、容、感等元件模型
信息交流层	复杂网络理论^{[35,55⇓ -57]}	借鉴图论思想，主要考虑通信网络的拓扑结构和物理系统的关联
	基于潮流模型^{[37,58 -59]}	同时考虑了信息网络拓扑结构和信息流动量对能量层面的影响
	基于系统状态方程^[60⇓-62]	以信息网功能为出发点，对耦合部分构建控制器以满足运行要求

弹性评估理论类别	弹性评估方式	内容	特点
基于系统表现	“弹性三角形”^[85]	将极端事件过程分为三个阶段，把系统性能损失累积量作为弹性指标	对极端过程的描述相对简易，计算相对简单
	“弹性梯形”^[32]	对极端事件过程更加细化，考虑了系统性能低谷阶段，弹性评估较为全面	对极端过程的描述相对简易，计算量较大
	基于设备可用性^[86]	将弹性指标与建立设备可用性和恢复时间相关联	考虑了设备的退化和恢复，误差偏高
	基于社会效应^[87]	对社会满意度量化以衡量系统弹性	弹性评价维度相对单一
基于影响因素的系统特征	基于多准则决策^[88-89]	选取系统的多个属性变量并设置相应的权重作为系统弹性指标	对系统特征属性以及相应权重的选取较为严格
基于影响因素的系统特征	基于图论方式^[90-91]	围绕系统拓扑结构提出弹性指标，如节点冗余度等	计算较为复杂