电气工程学报

电气工程学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 11 ›› Issue (8): 42-49.doi: 10.11985/2016.08.007

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基于因子分析的输电线路造价的影响因素研究

刘琰1,耿庆申1,王宁宁1,刘巍1,尹彦涛2   

  1. 1. 山东电力工程咨询院有限公司济南 250013
    2. 国家电网山东省电力公司济南 250001
  • 收稿日期:2016-01-06 出版日期:2016-08-25 发布日期:2016-08-25
  • 作者简介:刘琰,男 1986年生,工程师,主要从事电力技术经济、电力工程造价方面的研究和工作。|耿庆申,男 1982年生,工程师,主要从事电力技术经济、电力工程造价方面的研究和工作。

Study of the Factors Influencing of the Transmission Line Cost Based on Factor Analysis

Yan Liu1,Qingshen Geng1,Ningning Wang1,Wei Liu1,Yantao Yin2   

  1. 1. Shandong Electric Engineering Consulting Institute Corp.,LTD. Jinan 250013 China
    2. State Grid Shandong Electric Power Company Jinan 250001 China
  • Received:2016-01-06 Online:2016-08-25 Published:2016-08-25

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摘要：

以某地区2005~2014年内竣工投产的输电线路工程为研究对象,为挖掘造价变化的潜在因素、解决指标间的共线性,本文利用数值间的相关性,采用因子分析方法对影响因素进行降维,得到相互独立的影响因子,再对互相独立的影响因子进行回归分析,回归系数即为各影响因子对造价的影响程度。最后通过影响因子对单位长度造价与单位容量长度造价影响系数的差异,科学、合理地揭示出输电线路造价水平变化的潜在因素和趋势。通过分析得出工程量是单位长度造价上涨的主要因素、建场费呈快速上升趋势、大截面导线的广泛应用等结论。

关键词: 输电线路, 造价水平, 影响因素, 因子分析, 回归分析

Abstract:

Based on transmission line project completed and put into operation in a certain area in 2005 to 2014, the factor analysis method is used to analyze the factors influencing the cost variation and the factors affecting the cost of each factor in the paper. In the end, the potential factors and trends of the change of the cost of transmission line is revealed by the difference between the cost of unit length and the length of the unit capacity. Through the analysis, it is concluded that the engineering quantity is the main factor of the cost of the unit length, the construction cost is a fast rising trend, the wide application of the large section conductor.

Key words: Transmission line, cost changes, influencing factors, factor analysis, regression analysis

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