考虑青海直流的河南省电力公司购电优化决策

doi:10.11985/2022.04.032

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

提出一种省级电力公司在多级多时间尺度市场上的购电协调决策方法。首先是基于中长期电量平衡对年度、月度购电优化空间的辨别；其次在存在购电优化空间的基础上，基于两纬度风险分析法，进行考虑购电风险及成本的省级电力公司购电优化。以购电成本最小为目标，加入风险约束，构建同时考虑购电成本最小以及风险最小的优化模型；最后依据青海直流送端配套电源建设情况以及河南电网现状及发展情况，以青海—河南±800 kV特高压直流输电工程为例，对青海直流投运后2020—2025年河南省电力公司的购电策略进行优化决策，验证了所提方法的可行性和有效性。

关键词: 青海—河南特高压直流, 购电策略, 风险控制

Abstract:

A coordinated decision-making method for provincial power companies in multistage and multi-time scale markets is proposed. Firstly, the optimization space of annual and monthly power purchase is identified based on the medium and long term power balance. Secondly, on the basis of the existence of power purchase optimization space, based on the two-latitude risk analysis method, the power purchase optimization of provincial power companies considering the risk and cost of power purchase is carried out. Taking the minimum power purchase cost as the goal and adding the risk constraint, the optimization model considering both the minimum power purchase cost and the minimum risk is constructed. Finally, according to the construction of supporting DC power supply in Qinghai province and the current situation and development of Henan power grid, taking Qinghai-Henan ±800 kV UHVDC transmission project as an example, the power purchase strategy of Henan Electric Power Company in 2020-2025 after Qinghai DC is put into operation is optimized and the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method are verified.

Key words: Qinghai-Henan UHVDC, electricity purchasing strategy, risk management

中图分类号:

TM561

李虎军, 赵文杰, 白宏坤, 王天梁, 李迁, 姜欣. 考虑青海直流的河南省电力公司购电优化决策[J]. 电气工程学报, 2022, 17(4): 300-308.

LI Hujun, ZHAO Wenjie, BAI Hongkun, WANG Tianliang, LI Qian, JIANG Xin. Optimal Purchase Decision of Henan Electric Power Company Considering Qinghai Direct Current[J]. Journal of Electrical Engineering, 2022, 17(4): 300-308.

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电量平衡		年份
电量平衡		2020年	2021年	2022年	2023年	2024年	2025年
需电量		3 760	3 930	4 100	4 270	4 440	4 610
省内	燃煤	2 343	2 343	2 343	2 347	2 417	2 488
	燃气	106	106	134	134	134	134
	常规水电	76	76	76	76	76	76
	抽水蓄能	19	32	36	36	36	46
	风电	109	164	213	242	269	299
	光伏	66	66	66	66	66	66
	非统调	169	173	177	182	186	190
省外	三峡水电	72	72	72	72	72	72
省外	哈郑直流	440	440	440	440	440	440
电量缺口		361	458	543	675	743	799

月份	2020年	2021年	2022年	2023年	2024年	2025年
1月	32.9	41.8	49.4	61.4	67.6	72.5
2月	26.2	33.1	39.0	48.4	53.2	57.0
3月	29.0	36.8	43.5	54.1	59.6	64.0
4月	26.1	33.0	39.0	48.5	53.4	57.3
5月	27.3	34.6	40.9	50.9	56.1	60.2
6月	29.4	37.6	44.7	55.8	61.6	66.3
7月	36.2	46.2	55.0	68.4	75.5	81.2
8月	34.9	44.5	53.0	66	72.8	78.4
9月	28.2	36.1	42.9	53.4	59.0	63.5
10月	28.0	35.4	41.9	52.1	57.3	61.5
11月	29.1	36.9	43.5	54.0	59.4	63.8
12月	33.4	42.3	49.9	61.9	68.0	73.0

电量情况		年份
电量情况		2020年	2021年	2022年	2023年	2024年	2025年
一、需电量		3 760	3 930	4 100	4 270	4 440	4 610
二、省内优先电量	1. 常规水电	75.5	75.5	75.5	75.5	75.5	75.5
	2. 统调光伏	108.7	164.1	212.9	242.0	269.2	298.9
	3. 统调风电	66.1	66.1	66.1	66.1	66.1	66.1
	4. 非统调	168.8	173.0	177.1	182.0	186.1	190.3
	5. 热电联产机组	99.9	99.9	99.9	99.9	99.9	99.9
	6. 抽蓄机组	18.7	31.5	35.8	35.8	35.8	45.7
	7. 调峰机组	52.3	64.6	75.3	81.8	87.8	94.3
三、直接交易电量		1 947.7	2 035.7	2 123.8	2 211.9	2 299.9	2 388.0
四、外购电量	1. 三峡	72	72	72	72	72	72
	2. 天中直流	440	440	440	440	440	440
	3. 青海直流	187.4	272.4	386.8	419.0	419.0	419.0
五、现货购电空间		522.8	435.1	334.8	344.1	388.7	420.3

时间	2020年			2021年			2022年			2023—2025年
时间	拟送	合约	现货	拟送	合约	现货	拟送	合约	现货	拟送	合约
1月	17.36	17.36	0.00	25.23	25.23	0.00	34.33	34.33	0.00	34.33	34.33
2月	15.68	13.48	2.20	22.79	19.60	3.19	31.01	27.29	3.72	31.01	31.01
3月	17.36	14.93	2.43	25.23	21.70	3.53	34.33	30.21	4.12	34.33	34.33
4月	16.80	14.45	2.35	24.42	21.00	3.42	33.23	29.24	3.99	33.23	33.23
5月	17.36	14.93	2.43	25.23	21.70	3.53	34.33	30.21	4.12	34.33	34.33
6月	16.80	14.45	2.35	24.42	21.00	3.42	33.23	29.24	3.99	33.23	33.23
7月	18.35	18.35	0.00	26.67	26.67	0.00	41.70	41.70	0.00	41.70	41.70
8月	18.35	18.35	0.00	26.67	26.67	0.00	41.70	41.70	0.00	41.70	41.70
9月	16.80	16.80	0.00	24.42	24.42	0.00	33.23	33.23	0.00	33.23	33.23
10月	17.36	14.93	2.43	25.23	21.70	3.53	34.33	30.21	4.12	34.33	34.33
11月	16.80	14.45	2.35	24.42	21.00	3.42	33.23	29.24	3.99	33.23	33.23
12月	17.36	14.93	2.43	25.23	21.70	3.53	34.33	30.21	4.12	34.33	34.33
全年	206	187	19	300	272	28	419	387	32	419	419