考虑随机影响因素的电网饱和负荷概率预测方法

doi:10.11985/2021.03.014

电气工程学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 16 ›› Issue (3): 99-105.doi: 10.11985/2021.03.014

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考虑随机影响因素的电网饱和负荷概率预测方法

荆林国¹(), 荆仲毅²(), 张韶晶¹(), 张韶颖¹()

1.国网山东省电力公司滨州供电公司滨州 256610
2.山东科技大学电气与自动化工程学院青岛 266590

收稿日期:2020-09-02 修回日期:2021-05-12 出版日期:2021-09-25 发布日期:2021-10-29
作者简介:荆林国,男,1975年生,高级工程师。主要研究方向为电力工程技术及生产运维等。E-mail： fujiao8944643939@163.com
荆仲毅,男,1999年生。主要研究方向为电力通信技术。E-mail： 893607537@qq.com
张韶晶,女,1976年生,高级工程师。主要研究方向为电力工程技术及营销服务等。E-mail： 1115327593@qq.com
张韶颖,女,1973年生。主要研究方向为电力生产运维。E-mail： 1263459082@qq.com

Power Grid Saturation Load Probability Prediction Method Considering Random Influencing Factors

JING Linguo¹(), JING Zhongyi²(), ZHANG Shaojing¹(), ZHANG Shaoying¹()

1. Binzhou Power Supply Company of State Grid Shandong Electric Power Company, Binzhou 256610
2. College of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Shandong University of Science and Technology,Qingdao 266590

Received:2020-09-02 Revised:2021-05-12 Online:2021-09-25 Published:2021-10-29

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为有效解决当前电网负荷预测相关研究成果精确性待优化等问题,提出基于粒子群算法的电网饱和负荷概率预测方法。综合考虑电网饱和负荷影响因素,利用K均值聚类法对供电区域进行划分,以划分结果为依据,引入高斯过程回归模型和粒子群算法,利用滚动预测的方式获取电量剩余历史信息数据预测值,同时通过粒子群法对优化问题进行求解,获得最优的超参数,结合电网饱和判据与饱和负荷的随机影响因素规划数值,构建电网饱和负荷的概率预测模型。通过试验对所提方法进行测试,结果表明,该方法非标准拟合指数和比较拟合指数均较高,融合饱和判据程度强,具有可靠性。

关键词: 影响因素, 电网饱和负荷, 概率预测模型

Abstract:

In order to effectively solve the problems such as the accuracy of current research results of power grid load forecasting to be optimized, a probability forecasting method of power grid saturated load based on particle swarm optimization algorithm is proposed. Considering the influence factors of the saturated load of the power grid, the K-means clustering method is used to divide the power supply area. Based on the division results, the Gaussion process regression model and particle swarm optimization method are introduced to obtain the prediction value of the remaining historical information data of the power grid by the rolling prediction method. At the same time, the particle swarm optimization method is used to solve the optimization problem to obtain the optimal hyper parameters and determine the saturation of the power grid. According to the combination with the random factors of saturated load, the probability prediction model of saturated load is constructed. The experimental results show that the proposed method has high non-standard fitting index and comparative fitting index, strong fusion saturation criterion and reliability.

Key words: Influencing factor, grid saturation load, probability prediction model

中图分类号:

TM715

荆林国, 荆仲毅, 张韶晶, 张韶颖. 考虑随机影响因素的电网饱和负荷概率预测方法[J]. 电气工程学报, 2021, 16(3): 99-105.

JING Linguo, JING Zhongyi, ZHANG Shaojing, ZHANG Shaoying. Power Grid Saturation Load Probability Prediction Method Considering Random Influencing Factors[J]. Journal of Electrical Engineering, 2021, 16(3): 99-105.

图/表 5

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方法	电网饱和区间/(×10⁸ kW·h)	饱和期望值 /(×10⁸kW·h)	随机影响因素规划数值	最终饱和规划数值	鲁棒性(%)
本文方法	152.1~200.6	200.6	4.1	196.5	98
文献[4]	147.5~196.1	158.7	7.4	151.3	95.4
文献[5]	165.7~189.4	185.5	10.6	174.9	94.3
文献[6]	132.3~167.1	165.6	5.7	150.9	91.5

考虑随机影响因素的电网饱和负荷概率预测方法

Power Grid Saturation Load Probability Prediction Method Considering Random Influencing Factors

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