基于统计检验的漏电断路器寿命预测方法研究

doi:10.11985/2024.01.041

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

漏电断路器是电力系统中重要的终端保护器，为了避免其超龄服役，保障用电人员的生命财产安全，需要对其寿命预测方法进行研究。提出了一套基于统计检验的寿命预测方法，该方法将统计学理论和Arrhenius模型相结合，通过正态性检验和相关性检验解决了Arrhenius模型的适用性问题，通过方差齐性检验解决了加速老化试验的老化机理问题，通过异方差检验、残差正态性检验及残差独立性检验解决了拟合模型的质量问题，进一步提高了预测模型的准确性。使用该方法对电子式漏电断路器进行寿命预测，预测结果同厂家提供的参考寿命相近，表明该方法能够有效地解决寿命预测过程存在的问题，同时对其他同类产品的寿命预测也具有一定的参考价值。

关键词: 漏电断路器, 超龄服役, 寿命预测, Arrhenius模型, 异方差

Abstract:

In terms of leakage circuit breaker, it is a key terminal protector in power system. To avoid its excessive usage as well as ensure the safety of life and property of power users, it needs to carry out the research on its life prediction method. A set of life prediction method based on statistical test is proposed. This method makes the combination of statistical theory with Arrhenius model, which solves the applicability of Arrhenius model through normality test and correlation test. At the same time, the aging mechanism of accelerated aging test is solved through variance homogeneity test. In addition, the quality problem of the fitting model is solved and the accuracy of the prediction model is further improved by heteroscedasticity test, residual normality test and residual independence test. The proposed method is applied to make the life prediction of electronic leakage circuit breaker. The prediction results are close to the reference life provided by the manufacturer, which indicates that the proposed method can solve the problems existing in the life prediction process in an effective way. At the same time, a certain reference value of the proposed method can be provided for the life prediction of other similar products.

Key words: Leakage circuit breaker, excessive usage, life prediction, Arrhenius model, heteroscedasticity

中图分类号:

TM506

孔维相, 石颉, 杜国庆, 袁晨翔, 张鑫越. 基于统计检验的漏电断路器寿命预测方法研究[J]. 电气工程学报, 2024, 19(1): 382-390.

KONG Weixiang, SHI Jie, DU Guoqing, YUAN Chenxiang, ZHANG Xinyue. Research on Life Prediction Method of Earth Leakage Circuit Breaker Based on Statistical Test[J]. Journal of Electrical Engineering, 2024, 19(1): 382-390.

图/表 12

图1

图2

图3

表1

图4

表2

表3

表4

表5

表6

表7

表8

参考文献 22

[1]	CANTARELLA G, CARRESCIA V, TOMMASINI R. Quality of residual current-operated circuit breakers[J]. European Transactions on Electrical Power, 1996, 6(3):149-156. doi: 10.1002/etep.v6:3
[2]	杨凤彪. 漏电保护器可靠性技术的研究[D]. 天津: 河北工业大学, 2004.
	YANG Fengbiao. Study on the reliability of residual current device[D]. Tianjin:Hebei University of Technology, 2004.
[3]	LEE B H, KIM S H, KIM Y H. Reliability on the unintended trips of residual current operated circuit breakers due to surge currents[J]. Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating & Electrical Installation Engineers, 2012, 26(5):79-84.
[4]	武一, 陆俭国, 迟长春. 漏电断路器的可靠性及其试验方法[J]. 电器与能效管理技术, 2008, 308(11):50-54.
	WU Yi, LU Jianguo, CHI Changchun. Reliability of leakage circuit breaker and its test method[J]. Electrical and Energy Efficiency Management Technology, 2008, 308(11):50-54.
[5]	武志刚. 漏电断路器可靠性及其失效机理分析[D]. 天津: 河北工业大学, 2012.
	WU Zhigang. Reliability and failure mechanism analysis of leakage circuit breaker[D]. Tianjin:Hebei University of Technology, 2012.
[6]	李宗芬, 朱旭明. 漏电断路器的拒动作与误动作的主要原因[J]. 建筑安全, 2009, 24(10):38-40.
	LI Zongfen, ZHU Xuming. The main reasons for the refusal and malfunction of the leakage circuit breaker[J]. Building Safety, 2009, 24(10):38-40.
[7]	林权胜. 漏电保护器的故障原因探析[J]. 大众科技, 2008(6):153-153.
	LIN Quansheng. Analysis on the causes of the faults of the leakage protector[J]. Popular Science & Technology, 2008(6):153-153.
[8]	李奎, 陆俭国, 武一, 等. 自适应漏电保护技术及其应用[J]. 电工技术学报, 2008, 23(10):53-57.
	LI Kui, LU Jianguo, WU Yi, et al. Adaptive technology of leakage current operation protection and its application[J]. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2008, 23(10):53-57.
[9]	叶鹏, 吴桂初, 赵升, 等. 剩余电流保护器的剩余动作电流温度特性研究[J]. 电器与能效管理技术, 2012, 398(5):12-15.
	YE Peng, WU Guichu, ZHAO Sheng, et al. Research on temperature characteristics of residual operating current of residual current device[J]. Electrical and Energy Efficiency Management Technology, 2012, 398(5):12-15.
[10]	刘帼巾, 边鑫磊, 马晓燕, 等. 基于数据融合的温度对漏电断路器动作特性的影响研究[J]. 测控技术, 2018, 37(4):41-45.
	LIU Guojin, BIAN Xinlei, MA Xiaoyan, et al. Research on effect of temperature on operating characteristics of residual current circuit breaker based on data fusion technology[J]. Measurement & Control Technology, 2018, 37(4):41-45.
[11]	韦海燕, 陈静, 王惠民, 等. 新陈代谢灰色粒子滤波实现电池剩余寿命预测[J]. 电工技术学报, 2020, 35(6):1181-1188.
	WEI Haiyan, CHEN Jing, WANG Huimin, et al. Remaining useful life prediction of battery using metabolic grey particle filter[J]. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2020, 35(6):1181-1188.
[12]	陈琳, 陈静, 王惠民, 等. 基于小波包能量熵的电池剩余寿命预测[J]. 电工技术学报, 2020, 35(8):1827-1835.
	CHEN Lin, CHEN Jing, WANG Huimin, et al. Prediction of battery useful life based on wavelet packet energy entropy[J]. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2020, 35(8):1827-1835.
[13]	孙曙光, 王锐雄, 杜太行, 等. 基于粗糙集与证据理论的交流接触器预期电寿命预测[J]. 电工技术学报, 2020, 35(10):2158-2169.
	SUN Shuguang, WANG Ruixiong, DU Taihang, et al. Expected electrical life prediction of AC contactor based on rough set and evidence theory[J]. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2020, 35(10):2158-2169.
[14]	高俊国, 孟睿潇, 胡海涛, 等. 电机定子绝缘老化寿命预测研究进展[J]. 电工技术学报, 2020, 35(14):3065-3074.
	GAO Junguo, MENG Ruixiao, HU Haitao, et al. Research process on prediction of aging life of motor stator insulation[J]. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2020, 35(14):3065-3074.
[15]	刘帼巾, 岳承浩, 李想. 漏电断路器的步进加速退化试验方案研究[J]. 电测与仪表, 2020, 57(14):129-134.
	LIU Guojin, YUE Chenghao, LI Xiang. Research on step acceleration degradation test scheme of leakage circuit breaker[J]. Electrical Measurement & Instrumentation, 2020, 57(14):129-134.
[16]	刘帼巾, 李想, 王泽, 等. 基于Wiener过程电子式漏电断路器的剩余寿命预测[J]. 电工技术学报, 2022, 37(2):528-536.
	LIU Guojin, LI Xiang, WANG Ze, et al. Remaining life prediction of electronic residual current circuit breaker based on Wiener process[J]. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2022, 37(2):528-536.
[17]	王晓剑, 徐喆, 徐俊元, 等. 一种电磁继电器寿命评估的新方法[J]. 电器与能效管理技术, 2018, 541(4):66-71.
	WANG Xiaojian, XU Zhe, XU Junyuan, et al. A new life evaluation method of electromagnetic relay[J]. Electrical and Energy Efficiency Management Technology, 2018, 541(4):66-71.
[18]	石颉, 袁晨翔, 孔维相, 等. 基于电-热加速老化的LED寿命评估检验方法研究[J]. 电子元件与材料, 2020, 39(8):89-95.
	SHI Jie, YUAN Chenxiang, KONG Weixiang, et al. Research on the test method of LED life evaluation based on electro-thermal accelerated aging[J]. Electronic Components and Materials, 2020, 39(8):89-95.
[19]	石颉, 孔维相, 袁晨翔, 等. 基于统计检验的光电耦合器寿命预测模型研究[J]. 电子元件与材料, 2020, 39(4):68-74,79.
	SHI Jie, KONG Weixiang, YUAN Chenxiang, et al. Research on life prediction model of optocoupler based on normal test[J]. Electronic Components and Materials, 2020, 39(4):68-74,79.
[20]	石颉. 基于统计检验的发电机定子线棒绝缘热老化寿命评估[J]. 绝缘材料, 2019, 52(12):7.
	SHI Jie. Thermal ageing life evaluation of stator bar insulation for generator based on statistical test[J]. Insulation Materials, 2019, 52(12):7.
[21]	LAKSHMINARAYANAN V, SRIRAAM N. The effect of temperature on the reliability of electronic components[C]// IEEE International Conference on Electronics,Computing and Communication Technologies,Bangalore,2014:1-6.
[22]	雷芸, 邱云峰. 基于温度变化的电子元器件参数响应研究[J]. 计算机与数字工程, 2015, 43(1):155-158.
	LEI Yun, QIU Yunfeng. Research on parameter response of electronic components based on temperature change[J]. Computer and Digital Engineering, 2015, 43(1):155-158.

样本序号	温度/℃
样本序号	55	60	65	70
1	8 643	6 990	5 636	4 435
2	9 108	7 465	6 077	4 773
3	8 875	7 273	5 717	4 627
4	8 675	7 237	5 691	4 502
5	8 483	6 934	5 537	4 371
6	9 047	7 403	5 916	4 710
样本序号	温度/℃
样本序号	75	80	85	90
1	3 690	3 014	2 363	1 265
2	3 920	3 093	2 465	1 319
3	3 761	3 034	2 421	1 270
4	3 703	3 073	2 402	1 277
5	3 607	2 972	2 341	1 256
6	3 840	3 082	2 442	1 295

检验参数	统计量	自由度	显著性
老化退出时对数(55 ℃)	0.941	6	0.664
老化退出时对数(60 ℃)	0.915	6	0.468
老化退出时对数(65 ℃)	0.938	6	0.639
老化退出时对数(70 ℃)	0.950	6	0.741
老化退出时对数(75 ℃)	0.979	6	0.940
老化退出时对数(80 ℃)	0.925	6	0.551
老化退出时对数(85 ℃)	0.963	6	0.849
老化退出时对数(90 ℃)	0.926	6	0.521

环境温度T/℃	1/T	平均退出时间t/h	lnt
328.15	0.003 047	8 805	9.083
333.15	0.003 002	7 217	8.884
338.15	0.002 957	5 763	8.659
343.15	0.002 914	4 570	8.427
348.15	0.002 872	3 753	8.230
353.15	0.002 832	3 045	8.021
358.15	0.002 792	2 406	7.786
363.15	0.002 754	1 280	7.155

解释变量x^h	显著性p	决定系数R²
x^0.5	0.038 5	0.535 3
x^-0.5	0.036 3	0.548 1
x	0.039 7	0.528 9
x^-1	0.034 1	0.554 9
x²	0.042 2	0.515 9
x^-2	0.033 2	0.567 1

序号	权数变量	拟合模型	决定系数R²
1	1/x^-2	y=6 082.034x-9.334 013	0.95
2	1/\|e\|	y=5 259.743x-6.898 744	0.99
3	1/e²	y=5 113.363x-6.462 814	0.99