Research on Life Prediction Method of Earth Leakage Circuit Breaker Based on Statistical Test

doi:10.11985/2024.01.041

Abstract

Abstract:

In terms of leakage circuit breaker, it is a key terminal protector in power system. To avoid its excessive usage as well as ensure the safety of life and property of power users, it needs to carry out the research on its life prediction method. A set of life prediction method based on statistical test is proposed. This method makes the combination of statistical theory with Arrhenius model, which solves the applicability of Arrhenius model through normality test and correlation test. At the same time, the aging mechanism of accelerated aging test is solved through variance homogeneity test. In addition, the quality problem of the fitting model is solved and the accuracy of the prediction model is further improved by heteroscedasticity test, residual normality test and residual independence test. The proposed method is applied to make the life prediction of electronic leakage circuit breaker. The prediction results are close to the reference life provided by the manufacturer, which indicates that the proposed method can solve the problems existing in the life prediction process in an effective way. At the same time, a certain reference value of the proposed method can be provided for the life prediction of other similar products.

Key words: Leakage circuit breaker, excessive usage, life prediction, Arrhenius model, heteroscedasticity

CLC Number:

TM506

KONG Weixiang, SHI Jie, DU Guoqing, YUAN Chenxiang, ZHANG Xinyue. Research on Life Prediction Method of Earth Leakage Circuit Breaker Based on Statistical Test[J]. Journal of Electrical Engineering, 2024, 19(1): 382-390.

Figures/Tables 12

References 22

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样本序号	温度/℃
样本序号	55	60	65	70
1	8 643	6 990	5 636	4 435
2	9 108	7 465	6 077	4 773
3	8 875	7 273	5 717	4 627
4	8 675	7 237	5 691	4 502
5	8 483	6 934	5 537	4 371
6	9 047	7 403	5 916	4 710
样本序号	温度/℃
样本序号	75	80	85	90
1	3 690	3 014	2 363	1 265
2	3 920	3 093	2 465	1 319
3	3 761	3 034	2 421	1 270
4	3 703	3 073	2 402	1 277
5	3 607	2 972	2 341	1 256
6	3 840	3 082	2 442	1 295

检验参数	统计量	自由度	显著性
老化退出时对数(55 ℃)	0.941	6	0.664
老化退出时对数(60 ℃)	0.915	6	0.468
老化退出时对数(65 ℃)	0.938	6	0.639
老化退出时对数(70 ℃)	0.950	6	0.741
老化退出时对数(75 ℃)	0.979	6	0.940
老化退出时对数(80 ℃)	0.925	6	0.551
老化退出时对数(85 ℃)	0.963	6	0.849
老化退出时对数(90 ℃)	0.926	6	0.521

环境温度T/℃	1/T	平均退出时间t/h	lnt
328.15	0.003 047	8 805	9.083
333.15	0.003 002	7 217	8.884
338.15	0.002 957	5 763	8.659
343.15	0.002 914	4 570	8.427
348.15	0.002 872	3 753	8.230
353.15	0.002 832	3 045	8.021
358.15	0.002 792	2 406	7.786
363.15	0.002 754	1 280	7.155

解释变量x^h	显著性p	决定系数R²
x^0.5	0.038 5	0.535 3
x^-0.5	0.036 3	0.548 1
x	0.039 7	0.528 9
x^-1	0.034 1	0.554 9
x²	0.042 2	0.515 9
x^-2	0.033 2	0.567 1

序号	权数变量	拟合模型	决定系数R²
1	1/x^-2	y=6 082.034x-9.334 013	0.95
2	1/\|e\|	y=5 259.743x-6.898 744	0.99
3	1/e²	y=5 113.363x-6.462 814	0.99