A Probability Assessment Method for Power Systems With Multiple Devices in Parallel

doi:10.11985/2017.02.008

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on characteristics in construction and operation, a probability assessment method for supply systems with multi-lines and multi-transformers in parallel is proposed in this paper. Using the probability analysis method, a probability model for multi-lines parallel systems and multi-transformers parallel systems is studied on the basis of such hypothesis as that the power transformer and transmission line fault is subjective to exponential function distribution, and the reliability, fault rate, loss efficacy rate of supply systems with multi-lines and multi-transformers in parallel is determined. The 500kV substation in Hengli and Dongguan is taken for an study example, and the result shows that it is high in the probability supply systems with multi-lines and multi-transformers in parallel, however it will be decreasing with the operation period being increasing.

Key words: 500kV substation, supply systems with multi-lines and multi-transformers in parallel, supply probability assessment, fault rate, loss efficacy rate

CLC Number:

TM315

Weideng Yuan,Jiekang Wu,Fenglei Zheng,Zhiqiang Xu,Qiang Huang. A Probability Assessment Method for Power Systems With Multiple Devices in Parallel[J]. Journal of Electrical Engineering, 2017, 12(2): 48-50.

Figures/Tables 11

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运行年限 /年	并联线路			并联变压器			系统
运行年限 /年	可靠度	失效率 /(次/年)	平均失效率 /(次/年)	可靠度	失效率 /(次/年)	平均失效率 /(次/年)	可靠度	失效率 /(次/年)	平均失效率 /(次/年)
1	0.999 992	0.000 045	0.000 552	0.999 999	0.000 004	0.000 047	0.999 991	0.000 049	0.000 599
2	0.999 664	0.000 861	0.000 511	0.999 986	0.000 028	0.000 038	0.999 650	0.000 889	0.000 549
3	0.997 513	0.003 929	0.000 490	0.999 931	0.000 087	0.000 038	0.997 445	0.004 016	0.000 528
4	0.990 802	0.010 096	0.000 482	0.999 796	0.000 191	0.000 034	0.990 601	0.010 287	0.000 516
5	0.976 639	0.019 111	0.000 480	0.999 533	0.000 345	0.000 031	0.976 183	0.019 456	0.000 510
6	0.953 024	0.030 080	0.000 472	0.999 090	0.000 551	0.000 028	0.952 157	0.030 632	0.000 500
7	0.919 329	0.041 993	0.000 470	0.998 414	0.000 811	0.000 027	0.917 871	0.042 803	0.000 496
8	0.876 224	0.054 015	0.000 468	0.997 454	0.001 121	0.000 026	0.873 993	0.055 136	0.000 493
9	0.825 320	0.065 574	0.000 467	0.996 163	0.001 479	0.000 024	0.822 153	0.067 053	0.000 492
10	0.768 732	0.076 330	0.000 466	0.994 494	0.001 881	0.000 024	0.764 500	0.078 211	0.000 491

运行年限 /年	并联线路			并联变压器			系统
运行年限 /年	可靠度	失效率 /(次/年)	平均失效率 /(次/年)	可靠度	失效率 /(次/年)	平均失效率 /(次/年)	可靠度	失效率 /(次/年)	平均失效率 /(次/年)
1	1.000 000	0.000 001	0.000 121	0.999 999	0.000 004	0.000 047	0.999 999	0.000 005	0.000 168
2	0.999 977	0.000 080	0.000 083	0.999 986	0.000 028	0.000 038	0.999 962	0.000 108	0.000 121
3	0.999 663	0.000 708	0.000 072	0.999 931	0.000 087	0.000 038	0.999 595	0.000 795	0.000 110
4	0.998 073	0.002 800	0.000 064	0.999 796	0.000 191	0.000 034	0.997 870	0.002 991	0.000 098
5	0.993 322	0.007 162	0.000 060	0.999 533	0.000 345	0.000 031	0.992 858	0.007 507	0.000 090
6	0.983 050	0.014 029	0.000 056	0.999 090	0.000 551	0.000 028	0.982 155	0.014 581	0.000 085
7	0.965 143	0.023 044	0.000 053	0.998 414	0.000 811	0.000 027	0.963 612	0.023 855	0.000 080
8	0.938 314	0.033 517	0.000 052	0.997 454	0.001 121	0.000 026	0.935 926	0.034 638	0.000 078
9	0.902 353	0.044 703	0.000 051	0.996 163	0.001 479	0.000 024	0.898 890	0.046 181	0.000 075
10	0.858 044	0.055 968	0.000 051	0.994 494	0.001 881	0.000 024	0.853 320	0.057 848	0.000 075