基于健康度和重要度的电力设备风险评估

doi:10.11985/2020.04.018

电气工程学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 15 ›› Issue (4): 144-152.doi: 10.11985/2020.04.018

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基于健康度和重要度的电力设备风险评估

马青山¹(), 孙玉玮¹(), 邓伟超¹(), 俞鑫春¹, 朱建宝¹, 王中一²^,³()

1.国家电网南通供电公司南通 226006
2.河海大学能源与电气学院南京 211100
3.南京东博智慧能源研究院有限公司南京 210000

收稿日期:2020-05-09 修回日期:2020-06-19 出版日期:2020-12-25 发布日期:2020-12-25
通讯作者: 王中一 E-mail:69527274@qq.com;921939688@qq.com;634197128@qq.com;1252895196@qq.com
作者简介:王中一,男,1997年生,硕士研究生。主要研究方向为电力系统安全风险管控。E-mail： 1252895196@qq.com
马青山,男,1967年生,工程师。主要研究方向为电力设施保护与消防保卫管理。E-mail： 69527274@qq.com
孙玉玮,男,1986年生,高级工程师。主要研究方向为电力系统的风险管理。E-mail： 921939688@qq.com
邓伟超,男,1986年生,工程师。主要研究方向为电力系统经济与市场。E-mail： 634197128@qq.com

Power Equipment Risk Assessment Based on Health and Importance

MA Qingshan¹(), SUN Yuwei¹(), DENG Weichao¹(), YU Xinchun¹, ZHU Jianbao¹, WANG Zhongyi²^,³()

1. State Grid Nantong Power Supply Company, Nantong 226006
2. School of Energy and Electrical Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100
3. Nanjing Dongbo Intelligent Energy Research Institute Co., Ltd., Nanjing 210000

Received:2020-05-09 Revised:2020-06-19 Online:2020-12-25 Published:2020-12-25
Contact: WANG Zhongyi E-mail:69527274@qq.com;921939688@qq.com;634197128@qq.com;1252895196@qq.com

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

由于电网事故发生的不确定性和事故造成的严重后果,需要建立风险模型及评估体系以实现电力设备风险评估。为了给安全风险管控提供有用的设备运行信息,提出基于健康度和重要度的电力设备运行风险评估方法。首先,在电力设备电气量\非电气量参数、运行状态和运行限值的基础上构建设备健康度模型,提出设备参数健康指标和综合健康指标。然后,由设备运行涉及到的各个重要因子组成的重要度模型来表征设备异常运行后果的严重度,综合电力设备运行的健康度和重要度,完善风险评估体系。最后,以某变电站系统为例进行仿真试验,利用设备数据来验证所提出方法的适用性,试验结果证明该方法能够有效评估设备潜在的风险,提高供电的可靠性和安全性。

关键词: 健康度, 重要度, 电力设备, 风险评估

Abstract:

Because of the uncertainty of power grid accidents and the serious consequences of accidents, it is necessary to establish a risk model and an evaluation system to realize the risk assessment of power equipment. In order to provide useful equipment operation information for safety risk management and control, a risk assessment method of power equipment based on health degree and importance is proposed. Firstly, a health model of equipment is constructed based on the operating status and operating limits of electrical and non-electrical parameters of power equipment, and health index of equipment parameters as well as comprehensive health index are proposed. Then, the importance model composed of the important factors involved in the operation of the equipment is used to characterize the severity of the consequences of abnormal operation of the equipment. Risk assessment system integrates and improves the health and importance of power equipment operation. Taking the data of a certain substation equipment as an example to carry out simulation experiments to verify the applicability of the proposed method. The experimental results show that the method can effectively evaluate the potential risk of equipment and improve the reliability and safety of power supply.

Key words: Health, importance, power equipment, risk assessment

中图分类号:

TM715

马青山, 孙玉玮, 邓伟超, 俞鑫春, 朱建宝, 王中一. 基于健康度和重要度的电力设备风险评估[J]. 电气工程学报, 2020, 15(4): 144-152.

MA Qingshan, SUN Yuwei, DENG Weichao, YU Xinchun, ZHU Jianbao, WANG Zhongyi. Power Equipment Risk Assessment Based on Health and Importance[J]. Journal of Electrical Engineering, 2020, 15(4): 144-152.

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设备	监测参数
电容性绝缘设备	介质损耗因数tanδ、电容值和电流值
避雷器	泄漏电流中的阻性电流、温度、湿度
电缆	介质损耗因数tanδ、电容电流、电缆接头温度、局部放电量
变压器	溶解的气体含量、局部放电量、温度、电动机电流、油含水量
绝缘子	绝缘电阻、泄漏电流、分布电压、脉冲电流
GIS及高压断路器	温度、SF₆气压、灭弧室真空度、分合闸线圈电流、机械振动、触头反应时间及速度

特性	断路器类型	主要故障部位	主要监测参量
CB#3	电源断路器	触头、锁扣、辅助触头	温度、分合闸线圈电流、分合闸速度及时间、压力
CB#7	变压器断路器	不完整的高压开关	机械行程、机械振动
CB#15	线路断路器	锁扣、不完整开关	分合闸时间、线圈电流、机械振动、机械行程
CB#19	母线断路器	锁扣、辅助触头、其他机械	分合闸时间及速度、压力、温度、机械振动

断路器	影响因子	权重	影响因子等级	重要等级
CB#3	负荷数量因子	3	4	3.95
	负荷等级因子	2	4
	社会影响因子	2	4
	设备因子	1	3
CB#7	负荷数量因子	3	4	3.75
	负荷等级因子	2	4
	社会影响因子	2	3
	设备因子	1	3
CB#15	负荷数量因子	3	2	2.00
	负荷等级因子	2	2
	社会影响因子	2	2
	设备因子	1	2
CB#19	负荷数量因子	3	4	3.74
	负荷等级因子	2	4
	社会影响因子	2	3
	设备因子	1	3

断路器	风险指标	风险等级
CB#3	健康度	2.5
CB#3	重要度	3.95
CB#7	健康度	1.0
CB#7	重要度	3.75
CB#15	健康度	1.6
CB#15	重要度	2.00
CB#19	健康度	1.6
CB#19	重要度	3.74

基于健康度和重要度的电力设备风险评估

Power Equipment Risk Assessment Based on Health and Importance

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